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The Pollcast: Countdown to Quebec's election begins

The Pollcast: Countdown to Quebec's election begins
From CBC - October 12, 2017

The CBCPollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst ric Grenier, explores the world of electoralpolitics,political polls and the trends they reveal.

In a little less than one year, Quebecers will go to the polls in what is shaping up to be an election hotly contested by four political parties.

Quebec Premier Philippe Couillardshuffled his cabinet on Wednesday to try to give his Liberals their best shot at securing re-election. But after governing the province for 12 of the last 14 years, are the Quebec Liberals running out of steam?

Polls suggest that the Liberals are still the favourite to win next year's election. But after winning the 2014 provincial vote by more than 16 percentage points, the Liberallead has dwindled to just four points. That could send a potentially volatile minority government to Quebec's National Assembly.

Whether the Parti Qubcois or the Coalition Avenir Qubec will prove to be the Liberals' biggest challengeis unclear. The centre-right, federalist CAQ under former PQ cabinet minister Franois Legault has been the second-ranked party in most polls and pulled off a byelection upset last week in a safe Liberal riding.

But the CAQalso appears to have a ceiling, having rarely cracked 30 per cent in the polls.

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