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Liberals end parliament sitting just where they started it, with a lead in the polls

Liberals end parliament sitting just where they started it, with a lead in the polls
From CBC - December 15, 2017

When the fall sitting of parliament began in September, Justin Trudeau's Liberals enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls and were on track for a re-elected majority government in 2019. Three months later, as parliament adjourns for the holidays, the Liberals find themselves back in the same position.

That does not mean it was not a bruising sitting for the Liberals, who dropped to their lowest level of support in the face of opposition questions targeting the ethics and tax plans of Finance Minister Bill Morneau. But whatever impact these attacks had on the Liberals' support, it appears to have largely dissipated.

With 39.6 per cent in the CBC Poll Tracker, the Liberals are down a little less than two points from where they stood when Parliament returned from the summer break on Sept. 18. The Conservatives followwith 32 per cent, up one point from the beginning of the sitting.

Both of these scores are within a tenth of a percentage point of where the two parties stood on election night in 2015.

The New Democrats are up less than a point to 16.6 per cent, with the Greens at 6.7 per cent and the Bloc Qubcoisat 4.2 per cent.

This relatively status quo sitting is unlike the first two of this parliamentary session. The first sitting at the beginning of 2016 saw Liberal support surge as the new government experienced a political honeymoonthe party went from 39.5 per cent in the 2015 election to 45.5 per cent support by the end of the spring of 2016.

Both the Conservatives, down more than three points, and the New Democrats, who fell nearly six points, felt the brunt of the Liberals' gains.

But during the fall 2016 sitting, the Liberal honeymoon was wearing off as the party's support slipped back 5.5 points and the opposition parties rebounded.

Since then, however, the 2017 sittings have not moved the dial significantly in any directionthough the New Democrats have yet to claw back all of the support, particularly in Quebec, that they lost to the Liberals in the months following the 2015 election.

Liberals rebound from fall lows

But if the dial has returned to its starting point, itdid fluctuate throughout the year.

Little impact from Singh's win

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